Ceasefire... Soon?
Political disillusionment at home and abroad, Iranian influence, and narrowing negotiations: The Weekly Conquest Week of 7.7.24 – 7.13.24
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Week of June 23, 2024
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As the US presidential election campaign season revs up, we are offered a unique perspective into the political transfers of power of two of our greatest allies.
In the UK, the Labour Party unseated the Conservatives for the first time in over a decade. In France, a far-left coalition won the plurality of the vote, ending Macron’s moderate 7 year tenure as President.
With these massive shifts, far from home, you may be asking, “how does this affect Israel?”
The newly inaugurated Prime Minister of the UK, Keir Starmer, did a 180° on the Labour Party’s orientation towards Israel, from the Jeremy Corbyn era’s Antisemitism/Anti-Zionism, to being an ally of Israel and the Jews.
France’s leftist coalition, the New Popular Front, on the other hand, wishes to unilaterally recognize a state of Palestine, lay an arms embargo on Israel, support the International Court of Justice’s case against Israel, and support the International Criminal Court’s case against, what they call, “Netanyahu’s supremacist government.”
Both electorates were fed up with the status quo and just wanted someone else. Keir Starmer is well known for his bland personality and absence of a strong vision for the future.
France’s New Popular Front is composed of Marxist, green, socialist, far left social justice, and center-left parties, agreeing on little besides their aim to unseat Macron.
Both countries’ leftward shifts arose from similarly dissatisfied voter preferences, but yielded completely different futures for their relationships with Israel.
Please don’t be shy and feel free to respond to this email with any suggestions of what you’d like to see addressed next in this column!
Sunday 7.7
Ceasefire negotiations have been steadily moving forward until an apparent hiccup on Sunday. Why so? The holdup was over the conditions of the permanence of the ceasefire, nature of the ongoing negotiations post-ceasefire, substance of each stage, movement within Gaza, and post-war status of Gaza’s southern border.
Some political analysts and insiders believe that these issues simply need to be straightened out and the ceasefire will soon follow. Others posit these topics to be intentional distractions by Netanyahu to delay the negotiations.
Either way, they are important to note, as their passage will determine the future of the Gaza, Houthi, and Hezbollah conflicts. Keep reading to learn about the ongoing negotiations that are solving these pressing problems. [1][2]
Monday 7.8
Feeling politically homeless? Well, you may not be alone. Vice President, Kamala Harris, noted in her interview with The Nation, “[w]hat are [Gazans] actually eating right now? I’m hearing stories about their eating animal feed, grass… so that’s how I think about it.” This statement fails to recognize the fact that Israel has been found in many independent reports to have been allowing sufficient aid into the strip, but it is Hamas and criminal networks that are causing the food shortage.
Want to look toward the right? Well, not so fast. The recently adopted GOP platform only contained a single line dedicated towards Israel, compared with the extensive and clear description provided in past renditions.
The U.S.-Israel relationship is here to stay and is supported by the leaders and supermajorities of both parties. However, it is important to closely follow changes in rhetoric as some on the left seek to mollify the anti-Israel flank and segments of the right attempt to further America first, anti-interventionist, policy. [3][4]
Tuesday 7.9
The office of the Director of National Intelligence, which is the parent agency of the CIA, reported Iranian involvement in the Gaza Protests in America. One of their most potent tools is through disguising themselves as influencers on social media.
Since you’re here, you may be safe, but consider being extra vigilant during your next Instagram scroll… [5]
Wednesday 7.10
As Prime Minister Netanyahu’s address before Congress nears, he will be increasingly under pressure to present something of substance to the group. He is one step closer to presenting a ceasefire with the newest report of Israel and Hamas agreeing to relinquish post-war control over Gaza.
Both parties agree that a group of 2,500 Palestinian Authority supporters, trained by the US, and backed by moderate Arab states will maintain order in the territory as rubble is cleared and negotiations for the next stage progresses. [6]
Thursday 7.11
An official Israeli government probe into the failures of the IDF at defending Kibbutz Be’eri on 10/7 has been published. The report found missteps in preparedness, assessing the situation, coordination, and assisting civilians. It noted civilian bravery, courage, and resourcefulness in partially staving off the attack and acknowledged the difficulty of operating in the unforeseen circumstance. This is the first of a series of assessments of 10/7. Once they are all published, we will have a clearer perspective into what happened on that dire day. [7]
Friday 7.12
As diplomats discuss postwar plans, ideas progressively converge, bringing Israel and Hamas closer to a ceasefire. In an Egyptian mediated discussion, Israeli officials got closer to accepting high tech surveillance systems in place of a military presence on the Egypt-Gaza border.
The compromise between ceding the crossing to Palestinian control and maintaining an IDF presence may solve this impasse while preventing a military rearmament of Gaza, which was plaguing negotiations until now. [8]
Saturday 7.13
The IDF launched a targeted strike at a fenced Hamas compound, attempting to eliminate the Hamas second in command, Mohammad Deif. The IDF is not sure about its success yet. A confirmation of his death would be a massive victory for the IDF, as he has been credited as being the architect of 10/7, the bus bombings in the 1990s, Hamas’ professional military force, rockets, and the extensive “metro system” under Gaza. [9]
Question: What is the status of The West Bank/Judea and Samaria?
Answer: The governance of the territory was split into three zones during the Oslo Accords in 1995:
Area A: Managed by the Palestinian Authority
Area B: Shared management by Israel and the Palestinian Authority
Area C: Managed by Israel
The negotiations to clarify these delineations were supposed to continue. However, they came to a halt after Yasser Arafat rejected President Clinton’s peace proposal in 2000, which was followed by the second Intifada. The violent uprising consisted of bus bombings, stabbings, and shootings, resulting in over eleven hundred Israeli deaths.
Peace plans have been proposed many times since, most recently in 2020. These proposals have faced various challenges and have often been rejected by Palestinian leadership. This leaves the governance of the territory in an unresolved state, without a clear path to peace in sight. [10][11][12]
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